Okay. I'm going to stick my neck out here and make my prediction and provide my limited reasoning as to why. It'll be Kerry folks. And it won't be by a slim margin either. History has shown that incumbent presidents don't win or lose the White House by a hair. They lose or win notably. Take a gander back at Reagan over Carter or Clinton over Bush the Sr.
The polls keep the two candidates neck and neck and I think there is a number of reasons for that, problems if you will. To begin with, let's face it, the polls are crap. They admit there is less science to them than luck. The pollsters typically make their call and ask, first thing, have you voted before. If the reply is yes, then they think there is a greater likelihood this person will vote again and they continue with the poll. This is the fatal flaw right here.
After the Republicans gave Clinton a good drag through the mud over Ms. Lewinsky, they kicked open the door for a kind of left-wing activism they could have never imagined. They forgot that most of those making movies and music are left-leaning. And the movies just kept pouring out: Fahrenheit 9/11, Soldier's Pay, Uncovered: The whole truth about the Iraq war and even "Outfoxed," taking to task the right-wing leanings of the Fox News Network.
Things got ugly. Never has the state of public discourse been more coarse. Jon Stewart has both highlighted this and participated, leading many forward into the morass of news and punditry with a book lampooning the current state of affairs. Movies refused distribution, books, such as Stewart's, pulled from the shelves of Wal-mart. What has become of democracy? Well this is it in action. It's ugly. I think we forgot that right around the time we stopped being concerned what was going on inside the beltway.
It was around that time that we stopped caring that our government started doing things in our name that maybe we wouldn't have wanted them to. They engaged in wars, propped up dictators and generally made a mess of things outside the American shores. They should have known -- and we damn sure would have told them had we noticed -- that this would come back to haunt us. And it did. Now we've got ourselves a war president. Who would abandon him? Well the Brits dropped Churchill like a hot potato after WWII. Churchill! Why wouldn't we let go the man that's drug us through the mud and can't quite master the English language.
Back to those polls and those pollsters. You see, they failed to really grasp what was going on. Never has there been such a groundswell of public opinion, of get out the vote efforts, of punditry, of media saturation. It's all a bit overwhelming but its having an effect. Just watch. Those pollsters only cared about those that voted before. They forgot the perhaps hundreds of thousand that have decided to vote this time, they forgot those that, maybe tired of the whole "democracy" thing, might return to the batter's box. They forgot those like myself living abroad with our absentee ballots.
This time we've all come to play, to make our voices heard. The pollsters didn't poll us. That's where they made their mistake. Common sense says the soldiers fighting go Republican, they need to believe in what they are doing. But I'm not so sure about that anymore. Take a peek. It's a mess. I wouldn't vote Bush if I were fighting. And for us, the expats of the world, we are tired of being seen as an enemy in the mall or the hotel. We are tired of being on the front line of this White House experiment in nation building, in this "endless" war on terror. It's not just that the "enemy" hates us, now Brits do, French do. It's a problem.
This time those that didn't vote before will do so. And it will make all the difference. Take a look at the polling centers in the run up to Nov. 2. They are packed. People are waiting hours to exercise their democratic right. I hope folks aren't caught by surprise. This time Bush will be sent home packing.
Yes, I'll stick my neck out. This election belongs to Kerry and its going to be a landslide, thanks to all those that didn't care remembering the privilege they've been given. The emotions:  determined |
This list is likely to be much longer for than I have space and time for tonight. So I'll just begin with the changes that came even before we were married. One of the first changes was, oddly enough, wearing jewelery.
I'd not worn any since my high school ring nearly 15 years previous. And even that was only for a few months. I just never liked it on me. It always got in the way when I was fixing things, working on cars, fishing, camping and generally being me.
But soon after meeting Natasha, I learned she was leaving for school on a scholarship in London. We'd be apart for nearly a year. She gave me a ring to keep until such time as we could be together again. Since I couldn't wear it because of the difference in finger size, I wore it on a chain around my neck.
I had to keep it kind of low-key because it could not be officially known that we were seeing each other so I wore it beneath my shirt as I made my way around the streets of Amman. I made a vow to keep it there until the day I married her. I wore that ring on its chain for nearly two years; it never left my neck. The clasp froze up on it at some point making even a desire to "get a breather" an impossibility. It mattered not. I never tried to remove it.
In May of last year we were engaged and I broke the chain around my neck and put on my engagement ring. I wear it to this day. I have had some small dramas with it, taking it off to shower and forgetting it for an hour. But the wife is quick to find it and put it back on my finger. It took me a bit to get used to having something on my finger. But I managed pretty well with the ring on a necklace so I think I'll manage.
It's quite possible I'll never put on another piece of jewelery in my life. But this engagement ring is now my wedding ring and it looks just fine. I've actually grown accustomed to its presence and even think it looks good on my hand.
It's interesting to me to realize that this woman came along and in the space of just a few weeks changed me into a wearer of jewelery. But I have to say that the choice of jewelery and the woman that asked me made all the difference. The emotions:  nostalgic |
Doha is fast following in the footsteps of its city of emulation -- Dubai -- and becoming a place where there are more cars than people. The reason for that is fairly simple: no taxes. Automobiles cost less here in Qatar than in their country of origin because you pay not one penny of tax to buy one. Many folks buy more than one, with some Qatari rumored to have three or four (although it must be noted they rarely leave home without their Toyata Landcruiser).
Because of this massive amount of machinery it can sometimes prove tough to get a cab. That will be a story for another day, but suffice is to say on a hot day in Qatar with the temperature pushing 45 Celsius with 80% humidity your patience runs thin and your mind turns to owning or renting your own vehicle.
The rental option is not so bad if your here for a short stretch, as prices again are fairly reasonable. With gas running 65 dhrs per liter (that's about 67 cents per gallon) of 90 octane (Plus for those stateside -- not they don't have 'regular'), filling up your automobile is not a problem. Doing the math, if one were to take a cab three or four times a day out and about for the month, a rental car could be had for only 300-500 riyals more. On those hot afternoons, it's money well spent.
There are a fairly large assortment of agencies here, many catering to more or less fantasy vehicles like BMWs, Jags and Hummers. But there are two that go more practical filling their stables with Hondas, Toyatas and Renaults. Al Muftah sits as the best of the lot. Their prices are the best and their service is always somehow more real than some of the others. National/Thrifty comes in close on price but the cars are not well kept and the staff is not as stand-up as those at Muftah. I'd even call it fun to rent from Muftah. We've used them twice and National/Thrifty once.
Monthly rental at Muftah for a Renault Clio: 1400QR with automatic and power windows/doors. The same money gets you the same car sans automatic and power options at National but they do have more cars on offer. A monthly rental at Muftah needs to be booked in advance and should only be approached at the beginning of the month. National is more flexible here. Short weekly rents or even daily are always to be had at Muftah and they will deliver.
There seems to be some sort of bus system going in Doha but it appears largely geared toward workers headed out or in to some project or another. The taxis have had a changeover and the new service is good but the waits and management of both old and new cabs is still pretty awful.
A car in Doha will really make a marked improvement for your time spent in the city. Cabs can be very confining and the drivers of most can be a bit cantankerous and at times even troublesome, although only to the point of annoyance. They are good for A to B but not for touring or exploring. So a rental car is not a bad option. Muftah can be had for 80QR (sometimes less with bargaining) a day. You should call direct. The web will provide rates several times higher than a phone call. The emotions:  sore |
There has been some discussion recently about the war of words between the two US presidential candidates and the so-called mud slinging that goes on. Clearly there is a division between comments like Kerry's wounds aren't "real" wounds (from Bob Dole of all folks -- a Republican you can like) and other such smears and comments about the quality of Bush's leadership. The line that seems to flow forth from most Bush spin doctors is that Kerry is not "presidential," that somehow he doesn't have those immutable qualities that we all look for in a president.
Surfing about a bit recently I came across just such an example of President Bush, acting presidential. Truly one of his finest and most telling moments.
The emotions: contemplative |
I just woke up this morning and flipped on the NBC Today show with Katie Couric (Henceforth referred to as Perky News Lite). Low and behold there sits Brad Pitt next to a doctor talking about the importance of stem cell research like he had something important to offer. Eager was he. Then he goes and says something about the wisdom of Cali Gov. Schwartzenegger -- the Govinator, who should be glad we can spell his name when many can't get Mississippi right -- and Brad's belief Arnie would do the right thing.
I'm sorry but did I get off in the Twilight Zone?
Brad Pitt: This is the guy that started some pugilist society and then blew up all the credit unions isn't it? Showed up once as a dead guy and flirted with Anthony Hopkins daughter? Married to that Friends chick? And he knows what about stem cells? And he places his faith in the Eraser? I have come to fear for this world!
The emotions:  shocked |
I know it has been quiet on my end for a bit. Well, I'm going to break that silence now and sound off on an issue from home that's been annoying me for some time: Flu-shots. I know many of you would like to know what's been going on, how's my neck after the Dubai scare, etc. I'll get to that one of these days. But for the moment, let's examine the flu-shot.
I remember distinctly when it popped up because I was thinking to myself, "So what. No flu shots. You don't really need them anyway." I remember way back in the days when my feet were on a different land mass and the shots were introduced. Of course they want to sell them so they say "Flu is getting bad. Better get one of these so you don't suffer." And naturally many listened. I never did. I never got one, saw it as a waste.
I know there are those out there that need them. But let's face it, most folks don't. They just don't. Our body never saw a disease it liked, so it gets in there and fights, flu shots or not. For those of us relatively healthy, we may get a runny nose, maybe a fever, but we'll make it. If we need a day to rest, that's what sick days are for. Let's use them. Bottom line, most of us just don't need a flu shot. So why the panic?
Michael Moore brought this point to bare in "Bowling for Columbine," but I think many of us have thought it for a long time: Fear is the number one American import and export. In the US of A there is a daily onslaught of things to be afraid of. If it's not the terrorists, it's the Tylenol, it's the mail system, it's air travel and hey, now it's the flu shot.
The panic has been escalating at such a pace it is sickening. The wife and I watch Orbit's western news package and she's asked me more than once, "What's it all about." It's all about fear. I realized the other day how it even has a parallel to the oil situation and that deathly fear Americans have that they might not be able to fill their SUV.
Yes, much like oil apparently, the US doesn't even make its own vaccine: it's the Brits (and maybe others we could only guess at). Next thing you know we'll not only have OPEC but a new and more dangerous OFLEC (Organization of Flu Vaccine Exporting Countries); dangerous because they don't know quite what they are doing it seems.
We watch the CBS/NBC/ABC news each night and are astounded how 90% of all the adverts are for medicines, many from Elkton's beloved Merck (a few of those ... apparently quite dangerous). I mean its Viagra, that purple pill with the annoying guy, its the people who can't sleep's pill. So it's only natural when fed medicine every night at news time that people want their flu vaccine. But, guess again, most folks don't need it.
And finally, word has come down from health officials. Guess what, "you don't need it":
Public health officials say Americans should roll up their sleeves for a dose of reality: For most of us, getting a flu shot is not a life-or-death matter.The flu vaccine will not necessarily prevent you from experiencing the flu’s miserable symptoms, like fever, hacking cough, runny nose and “hit-by-a-truck” body aches. Studies have shown that the shot generally works about 52 percent of the time.
... But the millions of people who are younger and healthier do not really need it — especially during a vaccine shortage, public health officials say.
“Right now the entire country runs on fear and we don’t need to live like that,” said Catharine A. Kopac, a Georgetown University gerontology nurse. “We somehow think we should be disease-free all the time. If you’re leading a healthy life & you get sick with the flu, you’re probably going to get through it.”
There it is in black and white, the face of fear running scared in the land of freedom. If you really want to worry about things, they really are so many other things to be concerned about. Bush and the ever-spiraling price of his war would be a good place to start. Forget about that stupid bloody flu vaccine. I don't want to read another story about it or see one more crying face on CBS Evening news, saddened by their lack of access to it. The most important post in the world is about to be decided in less than a week. I say to western news outlets: Maybe it'd be better to put more eyes on that.
The emotions:  annoyed |
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'Tash found this on BBC, sent it to me and it struck a chord. If neither of us have said so our pursuit of blogging was the result of a suggestion from our Aunt Karen. It sometimes is the only thing keeping Natasha sane; she's got plans for a whole blogosphere coming up very soon. I think for me and most everyone else it is proving a wonderful way to keep in touch and to get those thoughts out of your head. Aunt Karen, here's a big thanks to you from me and so many others that have taken the blogging plunge!</p>
Ok, here's an excerpt. For the whole thing just click here.
The seven-year-old bloggers
By Giles Turnbull
 Weblogs are sometimes criticized for being the self-obsessed ramblings of people who have little to say and too much time on their hands in which to do it. But there are gems out there - including many sites created by children.
Children as young as seven in one British school are using weblogs as part of their normal routine, and are doing better than non-webloggers as a result, their teacher says.
Weblogs, easy-to-use personal journals published on the internet, get children more interested in school work they might otherwise have disliked, says junior school teacher John Mills.
Children at Hangleton Junior School in Hove, Sussex, have been using weblogs in their spare time to learn more about things that interest them, but as a result their performance in class has improved. The emotions:  awake |
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Well, we learned one other little tidbit of information from our dinner with the Lebanese ladies. I'm not sure how we got onto the topic, but somehow or other I felt compelled to explain that I was, well, feeling a bit bloated. This might be an easy subject for the ladies to broach, but for me it was bloody well foreign. But that was the only word I could think of to describe how I'd been feeling for a pretty good little bit. Natasha had felt the same, but well, you know, she figured that was somehow normal.
After I stood, placed my hand on my heart and exclaimed, "My name is Jeff Tynes and I am bloated," the ladies were quick to chime in. The word, immediately, was how much sodium is in your water? What?
We'd moved in here and decided to buy bottles of water for all drinking water, forgoing the unknown that would be the bringing in of the big 10 liter juggernauts on a periodic basis. Bottles allowed for variety and you felt like you knew what you were getting. Initially, I'd had a fondness for Arwa water. We'd bought a lot of it while staying at the Movenpick. Seemed like ggggoooooodddd stuff mmmmmm mmmmm. But then I found Coke bottled it.
I'd read something about Coke bottling tap water in the UK and well, the Arwa just didn't taste the same. So some time after moving here I started buying cases of Masafi water. Masafi was good water ... or so I thought. But sodium "bad."
It turns out that Masafi has about the highest sodium content of any bottled water I can find. I never knew such. Amal, you set me straight! I started looking around after she and Julia explained there was a magical water available with about 2.3 ppm of sodium per bottle. Masafi, I found, had 23 ppm -- ten times as much. They explained that the magic water was not easily found, only available at select locations. After we drank up our Masafi I switched back to the more easily accessible Arwa; at least it only had 12 ppm.
Well, last night sniffing around at Carrefour reading all the labels I find that the Pepsi water, Aquafina, has the same low-sodium amount as the "magic water," that I sought. And it is pretty cheap.
Will it stop the bloating? I don't know. Amal claims that upon returning to Lebanon and drinking the lovely water there, it is only one week and she's fitting into jeans that were tight and all kinds of good stuff. And it is true that in Jordan, one of the most water poor countries on the planet, I never had this feeling.
I started looking around here and found that lots of stuff we have is high in sodium. I knew about Campbell's soups and some other things having high sodium -- stay away they told me, so I did. But I'm finding sodium everywhere and I'm starting to wonder and perhaps worry. I know it is used as a preservative, though I'm just guessing water doesn't need preserving so it's likely only "a natural part of the spring" or some such ad-boy garbage.
One other thing too. This whole thing starts to make you wonder where your water comes from and more to the point, what have they done to it, or not done. These things can keep you up at night.
Will switching help? It's gotten quite hot as of late 44-45 Celsius -- that's 113 Fahrenheit to you metric-deficient folks. That's pretty warm. Bloating in 113 ain't no fun that's for sure. Stay tuned and we'll see what happens.
Jun. 12th, 2004 @ 08:29 pm
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| » Those Lebanese ladies |
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 We
had quite a pleasant evening at a Korean/Oriental restaurant right down the road from us. We had been there before, with 'tash making Bulgogi a real full-time favorite. But this time my eyes were opened by a fantastic appetizer: Guests.
Natasha's friend Amal (Upper left picture on the right) had joined us and brought two friends: Katya and Julia (below, Katya is on the right). Katya is a close friend that also works at Jazeera, whilst Julia works in the Qatari tourism trade. All three are Lebanese, although Julia arrived in Qatar on a flight from Brazil, her home since the age of seven. Add into that marvelous mix one of our favorite dinner partners, Manu, and it was set to be a great evening.
We feasted on Bibimbap, Chicken Teriyaki, Sushi, Bulgogi and fritters filled with a meat veggie mix while we discussed the torture that is life in Doha. All of us had been here about eight months aside from Amal who's graduated into the year and a half plus club.
We listened intently to all things Lebanese. Katya had grown up in the south of Lebanon, which lived under Israeli occupation until not too long ago. We found out, much to my surprise, that Julia's last stop, Brazil, is home to a thriving Lebanese community -- actually larger than Lebanon itself at some seven million people.
The Lebanese are something of a legend in the Middle East. Perhaps due to circumstance, perhaps to ability, Lebanese expats populate a majority of up and coming industries in the Arab World. The only other country giving them a run for their money is Jordan. Lebanese are known for working hard and being creative as well, staffing a majority of the Arab television networks. Lebanon, like Jordan, has never provided the best job opportunities
in terms of salary with its political instability so many have sought jobs "outside." Our dear Ralph Nader's
partents were once residents of the Mediterranean nation. Yes, Ralph is Arab.
I'd known of the exodus, or brain-drain, from Jordan to the Gulf where young men leave for years to seek their fortune and return home to marry. In the Arab tradition, the man pays for wedding expenses and Arab weddings can be quite elaborate and beautiful. Add into that a home for the bride, perhaps a new wardrobe, etc; a bachelor might spend more than a decade in Jordan or Lebanon saving up enough to make it happen. To speed things up, they make their way to the Gulf.
But Natasha was struck by the empowerment of these three young women, mentioning how much she enjoyed seeing this as we left. Women are not often the ones thought of packing up and heading out to make their fortune in either the Western or Arab tradition. Thinking upon it, the three of them are quite remarkable. The Middle East, particularly the Gulf, can be tough on women. Those single and of marriable age living on their own are a controversy unto themselves.
Julia explained how she had been unable to find a decent salary in Brazil so she made a quick self-assessment and realized being a Muslim woman from the Middle East, she should return and seek work here, taking a 21-hour flight to Qatar. Though she wanted to return to Lebanon, the money is just better in the land of Doha. Katya and Amal have similar stories.
What is remarkable is their tenacity to buck a system that says "stay at home" and have babies, not that there is anything wrong with that. But these women had an interest and a skill and pursued it in the face of what I'm sure was some resistance. I was always impressed with the women's reforms being pushed through in Jordan by the likes of Queen Rania and Princess Basma. Now I'm thinking the winds of change in the Arab world are being ridden by Arab women more than I realized. I think that is a wonderful thing.
Jun. 10th, 2004 @ 05:35 pm
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| » Yet more Reagan... |
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I just heard Tom Brokaw remarking about the tremendous outpouring of affection for Reagan during his state funeral. I can only say that the tendency to lean so heavily on the past is usually a result of an uncomfortableness with the present or the future. I'm afraid so much hay is being made about his passing not because of his stature as a president -- history will be his judge -- but because what better way could Bush Jr. roll into the election than on the coattails of the father of the modern day evolution of the neocon movement.
In the National Cathedral were Reagan's friends, the currently-termed neo-conservatives that are now working hand in hand with Jr. It is really quite disturbing. Appreciating what Reagan did and who he was should be exclusive of so much political posturing. I suppose I shouldn't have such high ideals from a man that made hay of 9/11 in his political adverts for re-election. Here's more on the Bush admin abuse of circumstance.
I hate to see it as well because it smacks of the media's indulgence in all things White House after 9/11 leading right on through the war on Iraq. Only now is the media checking itself on these errors, some leading voices finding they were misled by voices with strong connections to the neocon movement. The media was on the right track, pushing for a sense of independence. This situation finds them slipping yet again.
Jun. 9th, 2004 @ 12:15 pm
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